Machine Learning models capable of handling the large datasets collected in the financial world can often become black boxes expensive to run. The quantum computing paradigm suggests new optimization techniques, that combined with classical algorithms, may deliver competitive, faster and more interpretable models. In this work we propose a quantum-enhanced machine learning solution for the prediction of credit rating downgrades, also known as fallen-angels forecasting in the financial risk management field. We implement this solution on a neutral atom Quantum Processing Unit with up to 60 qubits on a real-life dataset. We report competitive performances against the state-of-the-art Random Forest benchmark whilst our model achieves better interpretability and comparable training times. We examine how to improve performance in the near-term validating our ideas with Tensor Networks-based numerical simulations.

This article concerns Bayesian inference using deep linear networks with output dimension one. In the interpolating (zero noise) regime we show that with Gaussian weight priors and MSE negative log-likelihood loss both the predictive posterior and the Bayesian model evidence can be written in closed form in terms of a class of meromorphic special functions called Meijer-G functions. These results are non-asymptotic and hold for any training dataset, network depth, and hidden layer widths, giving exact solutions to Bayesian interpolation using a deep Gaussian process with a Euclidean covariance at each layer. Through novel asymptotic expansions of Meijer-G functions, a rich new picture of the role of depth emerges. Specifically, we find that the posteriors in deep linear networks with data-independent priors are the same as in shallow networks with evidence maximizing data-dependent priors. In this sense, deep linear networks make provably optimal predictions. We also prove that, starting from data-agnostic priors, Bayesian model evidence in wide networks is only maximized at infinite depth. This gives a principled reason to prefer deeper networks (at least in the linear case). Finally, our results show that with data-agnostic priors a novel notion of effective depth given by \[\#\text{hidden layers}\times\frac{\#\text{training data}}{\text{network width}}\] determines the Bayesian posterior in wide linear networks, giving rigorous new scaling laws for generalization error.

Vision-based tactile sensors have gained extensive attention in the robotics community. The sensors are highly expected to be capable of extracting contact information i.e. haptic information during in-hand manipulation. This nature of tactile sensors makes them a perfect match for haptic feedback applications. In this paper, we propose a contact force estimation method using the vision-based tactile sensor DIGIT, and apply it to a position-force teleoperation architecture for force feedback. The force estimation is done by building a depth map for DIGIT gel surface deformation measurement and applying a regression algorithm on estimated depth data and ground truth force data to get the depth-force relationship. The experiment is performed by constructing a grasping force feedback system with a haptic device as a leader robot and a parallel robot gripper as a follower robot, where the DIGIT sensor is attached to the tip of the robot gripper to estimate the contact force. The preliminary results show the capability of using the low-cost vision-based sensor for force feedback applications.

This project leverages advances in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to improve the efficiency and flexibility of order-picking systems for commercial warehouses. We envision a warehouse of the future in which dozens of mobile robots and human pickers work together to collect and deliver items within the warehouse. The fundamental problem we tackle, called the order-picking problem, is how these worker agents must coordinate their movement and actions in the warehouse to maximise performance (e.g. order throughput) under given resource constraints. Established industry methods using heuristic approaches require large engineering efforts to optimise for innately variable warehouse configurations. In contrast, the MARL framework can be flexibly applied to any warehouse configuration (e.g. size, layout, number/types of workers, item replenishment frequency) and the agents learn via a process of trial-and-error how to optimally cooperate with one another. This paper details the current status of the R&D effort initiated by Dematic and the University of Edinburgh towards a general-purpose and scalable MARL solution for the order-picking problem in realistic warehouses.

Deploying machine learning models in production may allow adversaries to infer sensitive information about training data. There is a vast literature analyzing different types of inference risks, ranging from membership inference to reconstruction attacks. Inspired by the success of games (i.e., probabilistic experiments) to study security properties in cryptography, some authors describe privacy inference risks in machine learning using a similar game-based style. However, adversary capabilities and goals are often stated in subtly different ways from one presentation to the other, which makes it hard to relate and compose results. In this paper, we present a game-based framework to systematize the body of knowledge on privacy inference risks in machine learning.

This paper presents a class of new fast non-trainable entropy-based confidence estimation methods for automatic speech recognition. We show how per-frame entropy values can be normalized and aggregated to obtain a confidence measure per unit and per word for Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) and Recurrent Neural Network Transducer (RNN-T) models. Proposed methods have similar computational complexity to the traditional method based on the maximum per-frame probability, but they are more adjustable, have a wider effective threshold range, and better push apart the confidence distributions of correct and incorrect words. We evaluate the proposed confidence measures on LibriSpeech test sets, and show that they are up to 2 and 4 times better than confidence estimation based on the maximum per-frame probability at detecting incorrect words for Conformer-CTC and Conformer-RNN-T models, respectively.

Training a neural network requires choosing a suitable learning rate, involving a trade-off between speed and effectiveness of convergence. While there has been considerable theoretical and empirical analysis of how large the learning rate can be, most prior work focuses only on late-stage training. In this work, we introduce the maximal initial learning rate $\eta^{\ast}$ - the largest learning rate at which a randomly initialized neural network can successfully begin training and achieve (at least) a given threshold accuracy. Using a simple approach to estimate $\eta^{\ast}$, we observe that in constant-width fully-connected ReLU networks, $\eta^{\ast}$ demonstrates different behavior to the maximum learning rate later in training. Specifically, we find that $\eta^{\ast}$ is well predicted as a power of $(\text{depth} \times \text{width})$, provided that (i) the width of the network is sufficiently large compared to the depth, and (ii) the input layer of the network is trained at a relatively small learning rate. We further analyze the relationship between $\eta^{\ast}$ and the sharpness $\lambda_{1}$ of the network at initialization, indicating that they are closely though not inversely related. We formally prove bounds for $\lambda_{1}$ in terms of $(\text{depth} \times \text{width})$ that align with our empirical results.

Deep Learning (DL) models tend to perform poorly when the data comes from a distribution different from the training one. In critical applications such as medical imaging, out-of-distribution (OOD) detection helps to identify such data samples, increasing the model's reliability. Recent works have developed DL-based OOD detection that achieves promising results on 2D medical images. However, scaling most of these approaches on 3D images is computationally intractable. Furthermore, the current 3D solutions struggle to achieve acceptable results in detecting even synthetic OOD samples. Such limited performance might indicate that DL often inefficiently embeds large volumetric images. We argue that using the intensity histogram of the original CT or MRI scan as embedding is descriptive enough to run OOD detection. Therefore, we propose a histogram-based method that requires no DL and achieves almost perfect results in this domain. Our proposal is supported two-fold. We evaluate the performance on the publicly available datasets, where our method scores 1.0 AUROC in most setups. And we score second in the Medical Out-of-Distribution challenge without fine-tuning and exploiting task-specific knowledge. Carefully discussing the limitations, we conclude that our method solves the sample-level OOD detection on 3D medical images in the current setting.

Autonomous vehicle (AV) stacks are typically built in a modular fashion, with explicit components performing detection, tracking, prediction, planning, control, etc. While modularity improves reusability, interpretability, and generalizability, it also suffers from compounding errors, information bottlenecks, and integration challenges. To overcome these challenges, a prominent approach is to convert the AV stack into an end-to-end neural network and train it with data. While such approaches have achieved impressive results, they typically lack interpretability and reusability, and they eschew principled analytical components, such as planning and control, in favor of deep neural networks. To enable the joint optimization of AV stacks while retaining modularity, we present DiffStack, a differentiable and modular stack for prediction, planning, and control. Crucially, our model-based planning and control algorithms leverage recent advancements in differentiable optimization to produce gradients, enabling optimization of upstream components, such as prediction, via backpropagation through planning and control. Our results on the nuScenes dataset indicate that end-to-end training with DiffStack yields substantial improvements in open-loop and closed-loop planning metrics by, e.g., learning to make fewer prediction errors that would affect planning. Beyond these immediate benefits, DiffStack opens up new opportunities for fully data-driven yet modular and interpretable AV architectures. Project website: https://sites.google.com/view/diffstack

Large language models (LLMs) have exploded in popularity in the past few years and have achieved undeniably impressive results on benchmarks as varied as question answering and text summarization. We provide a simple new prompting strategy that leads to yet another supposedly "super-human" result, this time outperforming humans at common sense ethical reasoning (as measured by accuracy on a subset of the ETHICS dataset). Unfortunately, we find that relying on average performance to judge capabilities can be highly misleading. LLM errors differ systematically from human errors in ways that make it easy to craft adversarial examples, or even perturb existing examples to flip the output label. We also observe signs of inverse scaling with model size on some examples, and show that prompting models to "explain their reasoning" often leads to alarming justifications of unethical actions. Our results highlight how human-like performance does not necessarily imply human-like understanding or reasoning.